Thursday, July 18, 2013

Quote of the Day: Iran and Latin America

[T]he absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
--from a Heritage Foundation op-ed

Iran has a very open presence in Latin America. The question, then, is whether this constitutes a threat to the national security of the United States. Even the Heritage Foundation has to admit there is no evidence for that. But, it seems, we should proclaim it to be a threat even though we lack evidence.

The smartest policy position would be to stay aware of what Iran is doing, being careful not to lump every activity into the "threat" category and also being very careful not to confuse fact and rumor. Too many analyses of Iran (including the above op-ed) have too much of the latter.

Labeling something a threat prematurely is definitely a threat to U.S. security. The second Iraq War will always be a prime example of that.

3 comments:

Justin Delacour 7:02 PM  

The smartest policy position would be to stay aware of what Iran is doing

Okay, but that beggars the question as to how it is even plausible that Iran could be doing something in Latin America that compromises the national security of the United States. In other words, the notion that we're supposed to be vigilant about this presupposes that there's actually some plausible hypothesis as to how Iran and the Latin American governments with which it cooperates would have an interest in doing something in Latin America that compromises the national security of the United States. I've yet to see anyone put forth a plausible hypothesis to that effect.

Anonymous,  11:27 PM  

The Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires 1992? AMIA cultural center 1994? The prosecutor's indictments are powerful statements of Iranian terrorist activity in the Americas.

Justin Delacour 12:59 AM  

Could be, but that leaves us with no actual explanation of what would have motivated the Iranian state to want to do that. Moreover, that is not a plausible hypothesis as to how Iranian dealings in Latin America spell any sort of national security threat to the United States today. There is no way in hell that any of the Latin American governments with which Iran cooperates would be party to terrorist acts. The Ecuadorian, Venezuelan, Brazilian, Bolivian and Nicaraguan governments have zero interest whatsoever in terrorism, as that would only jeopardize their own security, and Iran would have zero interest in isolating itself from the Latin American states that express opposition to any prospective U.S. or Israeli attack. So I am still waiting on a plausible hypothesis.

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