Monday, September 24, 2007

Opposing Chávez regionally

This is a story I saw in Chile’s La Tercera, which cited an original article in Mexico’s Reforma, but I couldn’t find the original. Apparently former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo wants to create a formal coalition that would counteract Hugo Chávez. He claims to have the support of former presidents Vicente Fox, Ricardo Lagos and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, though people close to Lagos have denied it. There are no real details, as it seems Toledo is just sounding out possibilities.

Maybe I’m wrong, but this seems like the wrong approach if you oppose Chávez, as it simply looks like a capitalist cabal to unseat him, which is the sort of thing he will use to his own political advantage. In addition, the idea of Toledo as a regional leader who would help counterbalance Chávez is laughable (e.g. his approval rating as president was often single digit).

The bottom line is that if you want to convince people that Chávez’s economic and political model is wrong for Latin America, then you need to point to a viable alternative, and show how that alternative will work well for the majority of the population. If you can’t, or if you just use a generic free market argument, then your coalition will likely just end up boosting Chávez’s popularity.

20 comments:

Justin Delacour 11:48 AM  

The bottom line is that if you want to convince people that Chávez’s economic and political model is wrong for Latin America, then you need to point to a viable alternative, and show how that alternative will work well for the majority of the population.

My view it that we're not talking about a model. Venezuela is a major oil exporter. At most, it could only serve as a model for other oil-exporting countries.

Non-oil exporting countries need to develop their own model. The question is whether they develop that model under conditions of financial dependency on the United States or under conditions of financial independence. I prefer the latter.

Anonymous,  12:19 AM  

There is a model. It is called marxism, leninism.

Justin Delacour 12:05 PM  

There is a model. It is called marxism, leninism.

Oh really? So the U.S.-trained economist Rafael Correa --who tells us that "nobody can imagine nationalizing the means of production"-- is a "Marxist-Leninist"?

This oughta be good.

Anonymous,  8:44 AM  

Here you are quoting someone you read in the internet saying something about Venezuela. Let's talk about facts and actual field experience.

Let's talk about the reforma and the constitutional reform, the new definition of private property, about the centralization of the economy and politics, about the absolute control of all means of production by el presidente king, lets talk about the state financing chavez politics, lets talk about corrupition, lets talk about indoctrination, lets talk about marxism, chavism: “el camino de la redención del hombre, lo que vino Cristo a anunciar hace dos mil años.”

You are right about one thing, this is no marxism leninism, it is marxism chavismo, which obviously chavez himself hasnt totally figured out, except for all the stuff he is copying from Cuba.

Justin Delacour 12:32 PM  

Let's talk about the reforma and the constitutional reform, the new definition of private property

Uh, typically the term "Marxism-Leninism" conveys that private property is on the way out altogether, not that it's being redefined.

about the centralization of the economy and politics, about the absolute control of all means of production by el presidente king

Really? Last I checked, that massive monstrosity of a mall in downtown Caracas --Sambil-- was thriving under the helm of... Caracas' merchant class.

I guess, though, that if the merchants have to pay some taxes, "Marxism-Leninism" must be right around the corner.

lets talk about the state financing chavez politics, lets talk about corrupition, lets talk about indoctrination, lets talk about marxism, chavism: “el camino de la redención del hombre, lo que vino Cristo a anunciar hace dos mil años.”

Indeed, let's talk about it. Let's talk about indoctrination. The problem, however, is that you're not really interested in discussing the issues.

When I object to something that someone else has written, I first quote the passage to which I object and then attempt to develop a logical critique of the argument. You see, a discussion is something in which one responds to the other person's points.

You, on the other hand, do not discuss issues. I made a number of concrete points about the state of public deliberation in Venezuelan society under the post entitled "Venezuelan education." So far, you've yet to respond to one specific point I made. I can only discuss an issue if I know SPECIFICALLY what points of mine you object to.

So, once again, if you're interested in seriously debating the issue, then go back over the thread entitled "Venezuelan education" and try responding to my actual points.

Anonymous,  5:30 PM  

Man, you have more rules que un convento. Vamos a darle pues. Your way again:

"Uh, typically the term "Marxism-Leninism" conveys that private property is on the way out altogether, not that it's being redefined."

Here goes a fragment of the constitutional reform proposed by thy highness:

Toda propiedad, estará sometida a las contribuciones, cargas,
restricciones y obligaciones que establezca la ley con fines de utilidad pública o de interés general. Por causa de utilidad pública o interés social, mediante sentencia firme y pago oportuno de justa indemnización, podrá ser declarada la expropiación de cualquier clase de bienes, sin perjuicio de la facultad de los Órganos del Estado, de ocupar previamente, durante el proceso judicial, los bienes objeto de expropiación, conforme a los requisitos establecidos en la ley."

"Last I checked, that massive monstrosity of a mall in downtown Caracas --Sambil-- was thriving under the helm of... Caracas' merchant class."
Wow man you are sharp: The economy is thriving therefore the economy is capitalist! If that is true how can you be a socialist at all. Pero what's happening in Venezuela is a lot simpler. So simple that doesnt require explanaitions. It is exactly the same that has happened since Juan Vicente Gomez. The oil price goes up the economy booms. Check the oil price and then think.
The funy part is that if the constitutional reform passes, thy highness will be the first person in inverting this trend.

About the other post. Well I offered about seven recent quotes from thy highness and his royal brother that basically say that the education reform is to teach socialist, that capitalism is evil and that they will make sure kids understand that.

Do you speak SPanish man? I mean it sounds to me like you just didnt get the quotes and are taking refuge in more rules.

By the way, dont come up with new rules. The point about this is not to have rules. THis is the internet.

Justin Delacour 12:12 AM  

Wow man you are sharp: The economy is thriving therefore the economy is capitalist!

Ah, yes, first you claim that there is "absolute control of all means of production by el presidente king" (a completely absurd claim, by the way). Then, when confronted with the point that most of the economy is actually in private hands, your retort is that it's no longer a capitalist system. Setting aside the question of whether it is or isn't capitalist, how does the second point support your original point of "absolute control of all means of production by el presidente king"?

You see, anonymous, "absolute [state] control of all means of production" would entail something far far different than what you have in Venezuela. This is a rather simple and obvious point.

Anonymous,  8:03 AM  

We are improving. No new rules, just evasive comments!

El presidente controls oil production which is /Arent you an expert?/ the one source of income in that country. There is nothing else there to export, and national production is so insufficient the country relies on imports to survive. By the way, this oil dependence has only gotten worse with Chavez (again, you are missing a lot of basic stuff for an expert).

What about the definition of private property in the constitutional reform?
What about the way thy highness and his royal brother talk about education as the one way to teach how socialism is superior to evil capitalism?

The one thing I don't understand is why you as a socialist want to deny Chavez's obvious Marxism. Is it an unconscious way to admit that Marxism is a failure?

One final thing I checked and the minister that paid for your trip was the INFORMATION MINISTY. Hahahaha. In Venezuela you would be being prosecuted now. You are lucky you live in the US.

Have to work. Chao.

Disculpas señor Weeks. Next time will focus on your blog, which is a space I appreciate. It's just that this guy annoys me un poco. Pero lo paro aquí.

Justin Delacour 11:08 AM  

El presidente controls oil production which is /Arent you an expert?/ the one source of income in that country. There is nothing else there to export, and national production is so insufficient the country relies on imports to survive.

Uh, you obviously don't understand economics at all if you think that oil is the only source of income in Venezuela. Oil is the main source of foreign exchange, yes. But any economy requires much more than foreign exchange to function. It has to have a construction sector, a service sector, etc. etc. Otherwise, all Venezuelans would be living like beasts in the wild, scavenging for food to survive.

Well, it just so happens that the vast majority of non-oil production --which IS the bulk of the Venezuelan economy-- is in private hands.

Do the math, anonymous. If oil were the only source of income in Venezuela, then we would simply divide the country's yearly oil revenue (minus the costs of production) by population size to calculate the country's per capita GDP. Ask any economist whether that would make any sense.

Boli-Nica 8:10 PM  

Venezuela is among the worlds leaders....and South American champion in..................
governmental corruption. .according to Transparency Internationals latest survey.

Haiti, a failed state, did beat it for the Latin American title.

Real model there, of how to take an already crooked rentist economy and make it worse by bringing everything that was autonomous and transparent (and efficient) in the State under the big leader. So when the big oil boom happens no one knows where billions of dollars go.

Little surprise they have turned PDVSA into a big piggy bank with no controls. And that Venezuela leads S.A. in Rolls Royce imports.

Chavez "revolution" has "defeated" the bougeoisie by buying them off.

Anonymous,  12:53 AM  

Camarada Justin,
Lo felicito por su persistencia. Es usted un buen soldado.

Venezuelan exports: $35.4b
Venezuelan oil exports: $27.9
Eso es 78% of capital inflow.

You control oil, you control the economy.

Pero eso no es todo lo que controla el serenísimo supremo. Thy highness also controls access to hard currency (the bolivar is so worthless than it lost around 50% to the dollar last week, and you probably know what happened to the dollar then, but no, you wouldn't read financial media).

Para hacer dinero en Venezuela tienes que hacer negocio con el gobierno. You will never get that because you chose to live in a capitalist country, you don't want to see it, and you don't know the place you pontificate so much about.

Another detail you haven't learned about in your internet searches: Venezuela has never been capitalist. It has always been a highly regulated economy. But you believe todo lo que dice el rey.
Do you also believe he comes to deliver on Jesus promises?

Do yourself a favor, go there, spend time in the field, live the real thing, learn the language, then think.

Justin Delacour 11:28 AM  

Venezuelan exports: $35.4b
Venezuelan oil exports: $27.9
Eso es 78% of capital inflow.


You're just repeating what I said, anonymous. I wrote, "Oil is the main source of foreign exchange, yes."

You haven't answered my point. As any economist will tell you, foreign exchange and national income are two very different things. In fact, some economies have historically functioned --and created considerable income-- without bringing in hardly any foreign exchange at all.

Pero eso no es todo lo que controla el serenísimo supremo. Thy highness also controls access to hard currency (the bolivar is so worthless than it lost around 50% to the dollar last week, and you probably know what happened to the dollar then, but no, you wouldn't read financial media).

Uh, you have no idea what I read. And judging from the starkness of your ignorance about basic economics, you're certainly not in any position to pretend to know much about the subject.

Para hacer dinero en Venezuela tienes que hacer negocio con el gobierno. You will never get that because you chose to live in a capitalist country, you don't want to see it, and you don't know the place you pontificate so much about.

But, you see, anonymous, you're negating your own point here. For Chavez to exercise "absolute control of all means of production" would imply not that the government contracts private firms but rather that such firms don't exist at all, that they've been replaced by firms directly run by the state.

Venezuela has never been capitalist. It has always been a highly regulated economy.

Well, gee, anonymous, by that standard, Western Europe isn't capitalist either, since all "capitalist" European economies are pretty extensively regulated.

But you believe todo lo que dice el rey.

As for what Chavez says, well, I haven't heard him say that Venezuela is capitalist. I'm frankly agnostic about what label would be most appropriate for Venezuela's existing economic system. The point here is that you're just plain wrong to suggest that Chavez exercises "absolute control of all means of production."

Anonymous,  6:59 PM  

Camarada Justin, me impresiona su resistencia. Es usted un revolucionario ejemplar.

This will make you happy:

I, anonymous, hereby accept that Chavez doesn’t control ALL means of production. He controls oil, which represents 78% of Venezuela's income. Don’t worry camarada, he will control more after the constitutional reform passes.

De hecho, Chavez exercises more economic control than any other president since Perez Gimenez (a fascist dictator Chavez has loaded publicly several times) and more than any other current government in the continent, with the exception of Cuba. I challenge you to deny this. If you give me an example of more governmental control I will send you one of those Kens figures of Chavez for your collection. I will get you one with red underwear. I want to make you happy.

"In fact, some economies have historically functioned --and created considerable income-- without bringing in hardly any foreign exchange at all."

Pre Homeric Esparta? Copper age Andorra?

Desafortunadamente tu deseo de ver una Venezuela aislada al mundo nunca tendrá lugar because all Venezuela produces is oil (sorry I mean 78% of its exports, so please don’t start another chain of mails about how many Venezuelan arepas are exported to Colombia).

Camarada Justin, please confess: you do believe Chavez will deliver on Jesus promises.
Don’t you?

Boli-Nica 8:04 PM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Boli-Nica 8:24 PM  

Understanding Chavismonomics, or 800K in a suitcase, the rule and not the exception.

Its easy, and its a pattern you find in just about about every Venezuelan government in an oil boom, except Chavez has done it better than anyone in the past 40 years. Before two parties alternated the spoils, now its only Chavez, and oil revenues are by some estimates TWICE the amount in absolute dollar terms than those in the 70's boom.
Chavez has effectively hijacked PDVSA, by breaking its autonomy - and fiscal controls since billions no longer go to the central bank.

While some of the bonanza does it make it to the poor, a lot of it ends up in the hands of the military and civilian corruptocrats in the Chavista admnistration. Other money goes " a dedo" to cronies through fat government contracts, like that Key Biscayne guy who got busted with 800K. Other money is filtered to buy off the old money so they don't go make noise in the opposition. One way they do it, is through "contratos de comercializacion" where PDVSA basically pays a commission for the sale of x barrels of oil, in an overseas banks.
Others "down with" Hugo, get favorable exchange terms to import food and goods.

Then he throws money at the poor, in much the same way that the ADecos and COPEI did back in the day. People tend to forget that Venezuela spent billions on public works and subsidies of food and gas. The country actually spent more per capita on health care in the 70's than any other country in Latin America. Problem was when the oil boom ended, all this was unsustainable.

So basically Chavismo is: you make your buddies in the army and party rich, you keep the rich happy by making them richer, you create "make work" jobs for the middle class, and throw crumbs at the poor. All the while you pretty much wreck any possibilities and give no incentives to actually creating any sort of sustainable wealth outside of the oil. And you pimp yourself like Kim Il Sum with even more funny money, and make all the luddites of the world go wild pronouncing the rebirth of socialism.

couple of lessons on Chavista economics, easy enough for even the economically illiterate to understand:

Lesson 1 - Chavista Pricing Policies



Lesson 2 - How The Government Can Help You Make Money In Chavezlandia


Lesson 3. Self Explanatory

Anonymous,  8:27 PM  

To qoute Chavez's favorite bible line:
"el que tenga ojos que vea"

Boli-Nica 9:59 AM  

The example to South America of the 21st Century Boliviarian Socialism.


Venezuela's image as one of the most corrupt countries in the world has not improved at all over the last 12 months. Rather, it has worsened, according to the 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index disclosed Wednesday by Transparency International in London, Efe reported.

The research, based upon surveys conducted among businessmen, experts, political leaders and local media corruption reports, ranked Venezuela in the 162th. Therefore, the country slipped back 21 positions, compared to 2006.

Compared to the other Latin American countries, Venezuela -with a score of two on 10- occupies the penultimate position among the least transparent countries regarding management of public funds and government-related operations. Venezuela is only surpassed by Haiti, with a score of 1.6 and ranked 177th, above Iraq, Somalia and Myanmar.



Source

The Report

Justin Delacour 12:37 PM  

He controls oil, which represents 78% of Venezuela's income.

Uh, no, once again, you're mistaken. It's not 78% of Venezuela's income. It's 78% of its foreign exchange. Two very very different things. Most of the Venezuelan ecnonomy is, in fact, in private hands.

De hecho, Chavez exercises more economic control than any other president since Perez Gimenez (a fascist dictator Chavez has loaded publicly several times) and more than any other current government in the continent, with the exception of Cuba. I challenge you to deny this.

That's probably true, but that's far far different than saying that Chavez exercises "absolute control of all means of production." Moreover, we don't logically assess the government's policies on the basis of whether you personally dislike state intervention in the economy. A logical assessment would be based on whether or not the policies lessen poverty and bring prosperity to the nation as a whole.

As for which economies have created considerable GDP without exporting a lot, well, try Brazil in the 1960s or, say, the Soviet Union througout its existence. The point isn't that those are models. The point is that Gross Domestic Product is not a mirror image of a country's export earnings. In virtually any country (including Venezuela), most income is generated in the internal market, not via the external market.

Anonymous,  7:09 PM  

Amazing. You consider Brazil in the 60s and the Soviet Union as successful economies. You didn’t win the China made Chavez Ken but you deserve it. Where do you want it delivered?

Let's suppose, for the sake of the argument, that those economies were successful (again playing by your rules). A point to make here: you cannot be self sufficient if all you produce is oil. Get it?

Oil is everything in Venezuela Justin. That private sector you like so much is more oil dependent than your president Bush. All there is in Venezuela is oil money. Value added industries are virtually non existent. Most of the GDP is in the services sector, which is an euphemism for government friendly suckers and exporters of what? Oil money.

Let me describe the local economy to you: oil, banks, oil, bureaucracy, oil, whisky, oil, Hummers, oil, more whisky, more oil, another Hummer. That is what Chavez has made of Venezuela after seven years: the country with the highest consumption per capital of Whisky in the world. Of course, you wouldn’t know. You don’t know the country except for your non relevant Propaganda Ministry sponsored visit.

Still, I told you I want to make you happy and I will by revisiting the topic under discussion here; which you have evaded over and over. You are right. This is not about indoctrination. I admit. Today I am more than reassured about Chavista’s love for capitalism. They just found out that Adan Chavez receives TWO government salaries, which is illegal. He loves socialism, but he also loves money. Of course, he is plays in Antonini’s team. How innocent was I to overestimate this guy! The very same guy in charge of your loved education reform. The information is in today’s newspapers (Spanish only, sorry)



This is the more corrupt government in Latin America today. It is a shame to support it so fanatically as you do. If you can find an example of a more corrupt government in the continent I will send you another Chavez-Ken this one without no underwear at all.

Boli-Nica 4:07 PM  

"Moreover, we don't logically assess the government's policies on the basis of whether you personally dislike state intervention in the economy. A logical assessment would be based on whether or not the policies lessen poverty and bring prosperity to the nation as a whole."

What part of Venezuela "occupies the penultimate position among the least transparent countries regarding management of public funds and government-related operations." did you not get?

Billions disappear, and no one knows how billions in contracts are awarded - or to who they are awarded. Makes it hard to figure out just how much of that "prosperity to the nation" the gov is creating and and how much it is reducing poverty. What is clear is that the regimes very deliberate policies enabled and/or created these conditions making this corruption widespread.

Chavez did the reverse of what good governance is with his centralization mania.
-result the oil company is in an "operational emergency", producing about 1/4 less than what is should be. That and billions that have simply disapeared into peoples pockets.


Billions in oil revenue that are supposed to go to the "building up" of the 'revolution" in infraestructure, social programs, government offices also end up subject to "off the book" official use and pure corruption.

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